What is Brexit and what are the impacts of it on the countries of United Kingdom?

 

Brexit happened in 31^st January 2020. United Kingdom separated from United Nation. United Kingdom is formed up of four countries, England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Island. These four countries unitedly form United Kingdom which itself is a country. But yes, in some aspects, UK is considered as one nation and in some aspects, its considered as a combination of four nations. For example, in Cricket you would have seen England and Scotland as different countries whereas in Olympics United Kingdom is represented as a single nation. Looking into politics, government is one, the Parliament is one, but all the four countries have their own flags. In fact, the official website of UK says that UK is a country within countries.

Ireland lies very next to United Kingdom. Ireland itself is an independent country and is not a part of UK. But until 1992, it was a part of United Kingdom. Whenever we talk of Great Britain, it includes England, Scotland, and Wales. In Wikipedia it is written United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland whereas before 1992, it was written United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. This means that today the entire Ireland and Northern Ireland are two separate parts of the country Ireland.

One more interesting thing is in the year 2014, it was asked to the people of Scotland if they want to be a part of the UK. Or they want Scotland also to be entirely independent as like Ireland. Then 55% people voted to be a part of United Kingdom. This was asked in accordance to the introduction of Brexit referendum.

Story of European Union

Germany, France, Portugal, Spain along with 28 other European countries collectively formed a union named as European Union. That is why whenever Visa issued by Europe, it called European visa which covers 28 countries. You do not have any restrictions to travel these 28 countries. You can freely move from France to Germany and then to Spain. There are no borders. One currency is used in all these countries called Euro. EU itself again considered as a country. Even though all these 28 countries have their own national parliament, EU has its own parliament. Citizens of all these 28 countries vote and elect the Member of Parliament (MP) for EU. Some people think that EU has been given more powers due to which it sets the rules and regulations which up to some extent is not acceptable by certain citizens.

Why was European Union formed?

European Union was formed after world war 2. This formation was solely formed in agreement with promoting peace among European countries. Both in the world war 1 and world war 2, there were harsh hatred among European countries. Germany and France were like India and Pakistan of today. After the world war 2, and Hitler being out of picture, the people of these countries felt that promotion of peace is much needed amongst these countries. In 1950’s the trade Union was formed by some handful number of countries and with time many other countries started joining the Union. In the year 1999, the decided to have one currency called Euro. With this they not only became united but emerged as a power in the world map.

European Union gives freedom to all the countries in all aspects. From business set up to travel tourism and many more. Even the usage of currencies is also not forced on any country. That is the reason why Denmark, Poland and Hungary do not use Euro as their currency. But some rules set by EU was not acceptable by some citizens like 2015 refugee crisis.

Why Brexit?

The European Union stated that every country must take a fixed number of refugees within their country in proportion of their population. This upsets many people. Many people felt that they should come out of European Union and should have their country as an independent country.

In Britain, the right-wing party which is a very conservative party in the Britain been seen taking advantage of this and suggested people that they want to come out of the European Union. With many ups and downs within the right-wing party as well, in the year 2016 a referendum was passed in favor of Brexit in which 52% of the people voted in favor of leaving EU.

There were many ups and downs in terms of deal with the EU from 2016 to 2020. And finally, in 31^st January 2020, Brexit was formed. But here also the exact trade agreements with the EU have not been negotiated.

Effects of Brexit

1 – Import Duty – 1/3^rd of products in UK are being imported from EU which will levy a export duty which eventually will have the inflation to go high.

2 – Businesses Setup – Many businesses in the UK would have to spend more to setup their businesses in other EU countries. All these spends would include taxes, land acquisition and many more.

3 – Jobs – Many people in the UK who were free to move anywhere in the EU will have to face the country exit protocols and work permit which is a burden for them.

A report says that UK faced a loss of 2.5% in the GDP with the introduction of Brexit. Unemployment rose to 1.5%, and some -6% investments were seen. The per capita income reduced by 1.5%.

Scotland Case

Even though Scotland has been a part of UK, the people there want to come out of UK and wanted to be a part of EU. But that would eventually have a very bad impact on UK in terms of the economy.

Is India’s GDP better than USA, Canada? A big NO

After the government data release of the GDP in second quarter of the financial year 2020-2021, there were many myths in representing the data. Many places I got to see that India’s GDP is at the worst among all other countries of G20. Whereas certain representations also stated that the loss of USA, Canada and some other countries are way bad than that of India. But what is the truth? Let us throw come light on the same.

Actual figures of GDP comparison of the G20 countries

Many people came out with a graph showing that the GDP of India is way better than that of USA, Canada. But the face is that the comparison that is represented is wrong. The data showed USA GDP at -33%, Singapore at -42.9%, Canada at -38.7%. But the actual figure is below

The above figure is a screenshot from the twitter handle of Gita Gopinath, the chief economist of International Monetary Fund.

The ruling party explanations – The finance minister in one of the press conferences stated that such a downfall of GDP is Act of God. This statement seems to be good explanatory but in real this statement seems to be pure baseless.

Let us assume for a moment that the GDP loss is because of the pandemic. However, if we compare the graph of previous quarters, there was a subsequent decline. Look below

Some of the main reasons of the above decline

·         Demonetization – In an overall perspective GDP of any country depends on the demand that come from people. And when there will be no demand, the GDP would go low consequently. At the time of demonetization, people had to face a lot of problem to spend cash in the market which eventually had a very bad impact in the market.

·         GST - We all know that GST is one of the best moves in India. But does this have any significant impact on the country’s GDP? Implementation of GST had a direct impact on the price of products and business. Which ultimately had a very bad impact in the market, where people spent less because they would have to save money for future at any cost rather than spending on not very necessary products. And more over GST is not standard across all sectors. For food industry the GST is something, for Motor industry the GST is something. There is no uniformity.

·         Inflation – Usually it happens that when there is less demand, the price of essentials would go down. But the case has become entirely opposite in Indian market. Prices are touching the sky at most of the sectors in the market. Most essentially the vegetables which had a very high demand in the entire market stays at the peak when it comes to pricing.

A report from world bank says that more than 12 million Indians would be pushed under poverty due to this crisis.

Comparison of GDP of India and UK

Because of the above wrong steps taken by the government, the GDP is -23.90%. Above India the country which has next major loss is United Kingdom. There too the wrong step of Brexit in 2019 held their economy face such a huge loss.

My View – The government must take necessary steps to overcome the situation and stop giving explanations. They should work on real causes to retain and regain the lost GDP, to make it positive. They should focus on how to make people spend to regain the market stats. Before any implementation in the country, expert advice must be taken to withstand losses. Single handedly taking any decisions could lead to nowhere but losses.

Citizens of Belarus want to get rid of the dictatorship of Lukashenko

 

European countries are mostly known for their well-developed economy and their good democracy. In terms of revenue also European countries are leading. But today also one country in Europe is there where dictatorship rule is followed. The country is Belarus. Mostly known as last remaining dictator of Europe. From past couple of days news are flashing about this country. Its citizens have woken up and they are in a demand of finishing up the dictatorship from their country.

Belarus – A small country situated in eastern Europe and is situated between Ukraine and Russia. The country got independence from Soviet Union in 1991. In the year 1994. Belarus adopted a new Constitution which declared this country as democratic, social and republic. Many freedoms were also granted like freedom of speeches, freedom of press etc. The legislative, executive and judiciary were given absolute powers to work on.

So according to the Constitution of 1994, Belarus was a democratic and liberal country. In this year, a free and fair election was conducted, and a politician named Alexander Lukashenko was elected as the President of the country. He was the first ever President in Belarus. Before him no one was elected. Ans he has been ruling the country till date. No one even after him was elected. He is the sole dictator of Belarus.

How Alexander Lukashenko became dictator?

After two years of getting elected as the President, in the year 1996 he got a referendum conducted which was considered as a fraud referendum and the public was not really asked about their opinion. Based on that referendum, he passed certain constitutional reforms.

The rules and regulations were changed in such a way that the President was passed on the major power and the Prime Minister had of almost negligible power. The PM became a subordinate of the President. The powers of legislation and passing bills were transferred to the President. Basically, Lukashenko made himself more powerful than anyone else in the country. After 1996, all the elections were fraud and Lukashenko was elected as the President every time. The election held in 1994 was the only free and fair election in the history of Belarus.

History of Belarus

After Independence, Belarus did not have the proper growth in terms of economy. The private sectors participation in the GDP of the country was 20-30%. Belarus with strong relations with Russia happen to run the country. In other words, one can say that Russia controls the economy of Belarus. And the history says that Belarus had a very bad sign of economy. In the year 2011, the inflation in

Belarus went to 109% due to financial mismanagement. During 2016, the GDP growth rate was running negative. Even today Belarus faces a high rise of unemployment. From all other aspects too, Belarus is very bad. Lukashenko has almost total control over the media. In fact, a media company called Memo 98 revealed that in between May-June 2020, 97% of media coverage was given to Lukashenko. All other opposition were given a mere 30 second coverage.

It’s been heard that Lukashenko could not tolerate any kind of criticism. Once in an open platform he told that anyone who would participate in the protest of opposition would be treated as terrorist. He projects himself as a very nationalistic personality and oppositions as foreign aliens or terrorists. Even the media projects the same. From the year 2010, many people tried to contest against Lukashenko but then whoever tried doing so either was put behind the bars with some false charges or had to leave the country.

2020 Elections in Belarus

9^th August 2020, President elections were held in Belarus. Lukashenko who served the country for five consecutive terms as President contested for the 6^th term. This time the rate of opposition he faced was not there in any other elections before. There were three main oppositions against him. The first was Victor Babaryko who was booked in charges of money laundering. Second was Valery Tsekalo who was told that he cannot contest because he has not collected 1 lacs signatures. According to some bureaucratic rules he was disqualified from contesting. The third was Sergei Tikhanovski who was the main opposition candidate. He is a youtuber and he talks about farmers and many real times issues the country has been facing. He mostly explains the reality of the country. Even he was arrested for protesting Lukashenko.

All three candidates were barred from contesting against Lukashenko. After clearing all the hurdles from the way, Lukashenko thought that now everything is fine. But then something happened which he would never have imagined. Svetlana Tikhanovski, the wife of Sergei TIkhanovski who is a school teacher came forward stating that since her husband is in jail for some reasons, she want to fight the election.

30^th July 2020, some 10 days before election, Svetlana Tikhanovski managed to attract tens of thousands of people in her rally. And with times lakhs of people came in support of her. Even the jailed opposition candidates extended their support to her. On the other hand, even thousands of people were hard to be attracted towards the rally of Lukashenko. This was kind of a revolution taking place in Belarus.

It was very clear that Lukashenko would go to any extend to win the election. 9^th August 2020, no independent observer was invited to oversee the elections. In addition to that opinion polls were totally banned. Usually in any election opinion polls were conducted to figure out that where is people’s mind inclined. What could be the outcome? But that too was banned in Belarus.

On the election day, complete internet was blacked out which was in continuation for few more days. And finally, with no surprise on 10^th August 2020, when the election results came out, Lukashenko won with a majority of 80% vote shares. And Svetlana had some mere 10 % vote shares. Svetlana stated that if fair elections would have conducted, then she would have received 60-70% vote shares. In fact, European Union, UK and USA openly stated that there were a lot of frauds committed in the election. And EU stated that it would declare sanctions against Belarus due to fraud election.

Soon after the election results came out, Svetlana fled to a neighboring country called Lithuania. There she conducted a press conference and stated that her life is in danger and she is much worried about her children. She never wanted to contest elections and conduct political rallies. The only reason that made her do so was because her husband is in jail. She also stated that she took a very difficult decision in flying to Lithuania for her children.

Slipper Revolution or anti cockroach Revolution

By this time, people of Belarus are upset with Lukashenko. Mr Sergei Tikhanovski who was a youtuber always called Lukashenko a cockroach and he should be thrown out with a slipper. And considering his words many people initiated a peaceful protest. And the consequences which they had to face were very tough. Granades, tear gases, water balloons were all thrown at the crowd by the police.

Some 7000 people were also arrested within 3 days and were kept in jail without food and water. Situation has become so worse that the government workers also joined the protests. Some of the loyal supporters also stopped coming to work. They too joined the protest. 17^th August 2020, when Lukashenko was going to give his speech in a wheel tractor plant had to face the audience in a very angry mood. They openly started booing him.

Many media people who were supporting Lukashenko also stared resigning from their posts and joined the protests. Government workers also joined the protests. Amidst all these, Russian President Putin came forward to extend support to Lukashenko. He even agreed to extend military support to Belarus to control the protest if required. He had a fear in his mind that if Lukashenko came down to power, tomorrow Russia could also face the same and Putin would have to step down from his dictatorship. Somewhere Putin also has a fear that if he would have to support Lukashenko, the citizens of Belarus could go against him. So, in total Putin is in big confusion and is not in a state of mind to think what to do.